pause ** CURACAO DEMO  The demonstration is regularly interrupted by a "pause"  or "more". You can continue by pushing the key <enter>. Push now <enter>
pause ** Sometimes you do not see anything happen after pushing <enter>. That's when the computer is calculating or entering data. Please one moment patience, and not continuous pushing on <enter>.
pause ** We will read the starting values for years 1979-85. Please wait a moment:
r na7985.dmi
pause ** The dataset 'na7985' has been made using the book-keeping programme MACROABC
pause ** Thanks to MACROABC ms. drs. C. Alberto, a young staff employee of 'Financial Affairs' could make the primary inputfile for MACROABC during a trainee period of only two monthes.
pause ** The primary inputfile of Macroabc for the Netherlands Antilles has been made on base of published primary data of the Central Bank, Statistical Office and other institutions.
pause ** With only limited improvements we could use it as starting values for our testversion of the macromodel for CURACAO.
pause ** We gave this model the name of the biggest island of the Netherlands Antilles: Curacao. The other islands of the Netherlands Antilles are: Bonaire, St. Eustatius, Saba and St. Maarten.
pause ** However, you must realise that we only changed the dataset of Microland for that of the Netherlands Antilles, without changing the parameters,
pause ** only making some 'calibrations' and giving some additional constant terms. Practical usefullness asks of course more than these brief 'calibrations'.
pause ** This is only a first step in the direction of a real macro model for the Netherlands Antilles. This disk gives also such a test version for a macro model for the island Malta.
pause ** However in the case of Malta we are in the mean time different steps further, because we have constructed a dataset for Malta for the whole period 1973-1989, and we reestimated the
pause ** behavioral equations of the macro block for Malta. This second version of the Malta model is not in this disk, but you can ask for that special Malta disk by sending a postcard to
pause ** with  'send me information about the demo disk MALTA' to: Stuseco, C.Jolstraat 50, NL-2584 ET The Hague The Netherlands.
pause ** We make a historical simulation about the period 1981-85, using the starting values of 1979 and 1980
pause ** but for the years 1981-85 only using the information about the exogeneous variables (like exportprices), and the growth of wages
pause ** please wait for a moment, when the computer is making the calculations for the simulation.
smpl 81 85
load en(kebwn); 0;
sim p;y
calc lbwn=lbwn(-1)*(1+lbabpp/100)*(aban/aban(-1))
calc gdogwn=gdbown+mown+down-gdobwn-cmown-iown
pause ** We do not want to see too many figures behind the comma and adjust the format:
set format F7.0
pause ** We want to look at some results of the simulation, and use a ready-made table:
table kern.tbl
pause ** We want to compare the results of the historical simulation with the realisation figures, which are in file na7985.dmi
base na7985.dmi
pause ** We will look at the differences between simulation results and realisations:
table kerndif.tbl
table kernpdif.tbl
pause ** We store the results of the historical simulations on refpad.dmi
smpl 79 85
w refpad.dmi 'simulation data Netherlands Antilles 1979-85'
pause ** The simulation results differ in some cases widely from the realisation figures. That's because this is not the real CURACAO model,
pause ** but the model Microland, starting with the CURACAO data, but in the equations still the parameters of Microland.
pause ** Now we start a simulation for more recent years. Actually we are going to make a historical forecast for CURACAO, using only information for the year 1984 and 1985
pause ** and for the years 1986-88 only using information about the exogeneous variables, and exportsector, wages and money:first we read the data for the period 1984-92
r na8492.dmi
smpl 86 88
load en(kebwn) en(zebwn) en(zbewn); 3*0;
sim p;y
calc lbwn=lbwn(-1)*(1+lbabpp/100)*(aban/aban(-1))
calc gdogwn=gdbown+mown+down-gdobwn-cmown-iown
set format F7.0
pause ** We want to look at some results of the simulation, and use a ready-made table:
table kern.tbl
pause ** Looking at the results, you must realise, that we don't have yet changed the parameters of Microland for those of CURACAO.
pause ** Now we start a simulation for the period 1989-92,
pause ** taking the growth of money and also the wages and government consumption as endogeneous:
smpl 89 92
sim p;y
calc lbwn=lbwn(-1)*(1+lbabpp/100)*(aban/aban(-1))
calc gdogwn=gdbown+mown+down-gdobwn-cmown-iown
pause ** We want to look at some results of the simulation, and use a ready-made table:
table kern.tbl
pause ** Remember this is only a test version,
pause ** using the paramaters of Microland and the data of CURACAO
pause ** We store the results of the simulations on refpad.dmi
w refpad.dmi 'base line CURACAO years 89-92'
pause ** We store the results also on three files, which together form the primairy input file bas1-7, and with that file you can easily make further analysis in the book-keeping model MACROABC.
out wks bas1-7a.wks; ybwn ibwn lbwn dbwn bwn mbwn mown mgwn legwn zebwn lbewn zewn oegwn ogewn devwd gdobwn gdogwn iown zbown tkwn tdbwn tdgwn ogown oeown kngown kneown gdbown down lown zobwn zoewn subwn oogwn
out wks bas1-7b.wks; ooewn sdlrwn sdkrwn gouwn midown midwn kown moown liqwd cgpp bpp mpp ipp loawp
out wks bas1-7c.wks; aban aoan wwqn ta bevan b1664n b1664p migan mitan usar surr devwn liqwn sobwn soewn bvwn ekap bmwn ibmwn tbauwn tblwn tmwn kbown
pause ** Now we will make a wage simulation. First we look at factor lbabppau.
pr lbabppau
pause ** We only see zero's. The factor lbabppau is an autonomous factor in the wage equation. We will give this factor the value 5.
calc lbabppau=lbabppau+5
pr lbabppau
pause ** This factor in the wage equation now has been given the value 5. Now we will start a new simulation, and will look what the result is on the economy of 5 percent additional wage increase year after year.
pause ** One moment patience s.v.p. during the time the machine is calculating the simulation.
sim p; y
pause ** As a baseline we use now the results of the preceding simulation.
base refpad.dmi
pause ** We compare the results of the wage simulation with the base line for different time series:
pr dif(lbabpp) dif(loq) dif(rvblp) dif(wwqn)
pause ** Now we look at the same differences by means of a ready-made table:
table kernpdif.tbl
pause ** Now we will look at the some differences using a grafic:
draw dif(rvblp) dif(wwqn)
** ready for graph ?
y
pause ** We now set LBABPPAU back to zero:
load LBABPPAU; 4*0;
pause ** The next is a simulation with a stroke of luck in the export prices.
pause ** Look first at factor bppt.
pr bppt
pause ** Factor bppt is the exogenous export price. We improve that with 10 percent.
add bppt; 4*10;
pr bppt
pause ** We now will simulate the effects of 10 percent additional export price growth.
sim p; y
pause ** As baseline we use again the results of the base line.
base refpad.dmi
pause ** We compare the results of this exportprice simulation with the base line for different time series:
pr dif(lbabpp) dif(loq) dif(rvblp) dif(wwqn)
pause ** Look now at the differences by means of a ready-made table:
table kernpdif.tbl
pause ** Now we will look at some differences by means of a grafic:
draw dif(rvblp) dif(wwqn); y
pause ** We set bppt back to its old value:
calc bppt=bppt-10
pause ** So far the demonstration with the testversion of the CURACAO model. See for more information the files *.txt in this and the other disk
pause ** The simulations are technically successfull: we didn't get stuck on 'no convergence' or 'overflow'. Of course this technical success does not give yet a real macro model for the Netherlands Antilles.
pause ** That would need more work, like is done for Suriname and, at least the first steps, for Malta.
pause ** For demo's about Microland resp. SURINAME resp. MALTA type:  ai MINILAND<enter>  resp. ai SURINAME<enter> resp. ai MALTA<enter> If you want to leave macmics, type: qq
