pause ** MALTA DEMO  The demonstration is regularly interrupted by a "pause"  or "more". You can continue by pushing the key <enter>. Push now <enter>
pause ** Sometimes you do not see anything happen after pushing <enter>. That's when the computer is calculating or entering data. Please one moment patience, and not continuous pushing on <enter>.
pause ** We will read the starting values for years 1972-80. Please wait a moment:
r malt7280.dmi
pause ** We make a historical simulation about the period 1975-80, using the starting values of 1974,
pause ** but for the years 1975-80 only using the information about the exogeneous variables (like exportprices), and the growth of wages
pause ** please wait for a moment, when the computer is making the calculations for the simulation.
smpl 75 80
load en(ibmvn) en(bmvn) en(kebwn) en(zebwn) en(liqwp) en(zbewn) en(cmown) en(zobwn) en(lbabpp); 9*0;
sim p;y
calc lbwn=lbwn(-1)*(1+lbabpp/100)*(aban/aban(-1))
calc gdogwn=gdbown+mown+down-gdobwn-cmown-iown
pause ** We do not want to see too many figures behind the comma and adjust the format:
set format F7.0
pause ** We want to look at some results of the simulation, and use a ready-made table:
table kern.tbl
pause ** We want to compare the results of the historical simulation with the realisation figures, which are in file malt7280.dmi
base malt7280.dmi
pause ** We will look at the differences between simulation results and realisations:
table kerndif.tbl
table kernpdif.tbl
pause ** We store the results of the historical simulations on refpad.dmi
smpl 75 80
w refpad.dmi 'simulation data Malta years 75 - 80'
pause ** The simulation results differ in some cases widely from the realisation figures. That's because this is not the real Malta model,
pause ** but the model Microland, starting with the Maltese data, but in the equations still the parameters of Microland.
pause ** Now we start a simulation for a recent year. Actually we are going to make a forecast for Malta, using only information for the year 1988,
pause ** and for the year 1989 only using information about the exogeneous variables, and exportsector, wages and money:
first we read the data for the period 1981-89
r malt8189.dmi
smpl 89 89
load en(ibmvn) en(bmvn) en(kebwn) en(zebwn) en(zbewn) en(cmown) en(zobwn) en(lbabpp) en(liqwp); 9*0;
sim p;y
calc lbwn=lbwn(-1)*(1+lbabpp/100)*(aban/aban(-1))
calc gdogwn=gdbown+mown+down-gdobwn-cmown-iown
set format F7.0
pause ** We want to look at some results of the simulation, and use a ready-made table:
table kern.tbl
pause ** We want to compare the results of the historical simulation with the realisation figures, which are in file malt8189.dmi
base malt8189.dmi
pause ** We will look at the differences between simulation results and realisations:
table kerndif.tbl
table kernpdif.tbl
pause ** Looking at the results, you must realise, that we don't have yet changed the parameters of Microland for those of Malta.
pause ** Now we start a historical simulation for the period 1983-89,
pause ** taking the growth of money still as exogeneous, but the wages and government consumption as endogeneous:
smpl 83 89
load en(ibmvn) en(bmvn) en(kebwn) en(zebwn) en(liqwp) en(zbewn) en(zobwn); 7*0;
sim p;y
calc lbwn=lbwn(-1)*(1+lbabpp/100)*(aban/aban(-1))
calc gdogwn=gdbown+mown+down-gdobwn-cmown-iown
pause ** We want to look at some results of the simulation, and use a ready-made table:
table kern.tbl
pause ** We want to compare the results of the historical simulation with the realisation figures, which are in file malt8189.dmi
base malt8189.dmi
pause ** We will look at the differences between simulation results and realisations:
table kerndif.tbl
table kernpdif.tbl
pause ** The wages in Malta don't grow as fast as in Microland. Remember this is only a test version,
pause ** using the paramaters of Microland and the data of Malta
pause ** We store the results of the historical simulations on refpad.dmi
w refpad.dmi 'base line Malta years 83-89'
pause ** We store the results also on three files, which together form the primairy input file bas1-7, and with that file you can easily make further analysis in the book-keeping model MACROABC.
out wks bas1-7a.wks; ybwn ibwn lbwn dbwn bwn mbwn mown mgwn legwn zebwn lbewn zewn oegwn ogewn devwd gdobwn gdogwn iown zbown tkwn tdbwn tdgwn ogown oeown kngown kneown gdbown down lown zobwn zoewn subwn oogwn
out wks bas1-7b.wks; ooewn sdlrwn sdkrwn gouwn midown midwn kown moown liqwd cgpp bpp mpp ipp loawp
out wks bas1-7c.wks; aban aoan wwqn ta bevan b1664n b1664p migan mitan usar surr devwn liqwn sobwn soewn bvwn ekap bmwn ibmwn tbauwn tblwn tmwn kbown
pause ** So far the demonstration with the testversion of the Malta model. See for more information the file book.txt in the other disk
pause ** In the mean time we have already made a second version of the Malta model. That version is based on a reestimation of all macro behavioral equations. So that version has real Maltese
pause ** parameters. That version has not yet a micro block for the exportsector, so a lot of work has still to be done. A demo disk with that Malta model is available.
pause ** Send a postcard with 'please info about the Malta model' to Stuseco, C.Jolstraat 50, NL-2584 Et The Hague, The Netherlands.
pause ** For demo's about Microland type:  ai demo<enter>  If you want to leave macmics, type: qq
